Delay of the Salalah Meeting and the Security Challenges of Hormuz

Security Challenges in the Strait of Hormuz

The recent delay of the Salalah meeting in Oman reflects serious obstacles in forming a regional framework for managing the Strait of Hormuz. Ali Asghar, a security and strategic issues researcher, pointed out that the disagreements among Arab countries, their security dependence on the United States, and the differing interests of regional actors have made achieving consensus difficult. He believes that Iran must maintain its initiative in the Hormuz equations and strengthen diplomatic pathways through diplomacy and phased management of tensions.

Consequences of the Meeting Delay

Asghar further added: "Bahrain has clearly stated its position from the beginning and announced that it will not participate in the meeting until diplomatic relations are restored. Saudi Arabia is also facing challenges regarding its participation in the meeting. All these issues have combined to reduce hopes for convergence among Arab countries at this time. On the other hand, tensions between Saudi Arabia, the United States, Iran, and Yemen have exacerbated these divides."

According to this analyst, the rift among Arab actors has increased, and their level of cooperation has decreased. He continued: "Arab countries are still facing the issue of outsourcing security and cannot easily distance themselves from this situation. The United States has an influential role in the security equations of this group of actors, complicating the situation further."

The Necessity of Strengthening Iran's Initiative

Asghar emphasized: "Iran must be the one to determine what happens in the Strait of Hormuz. If the initiative slips from Iran's hands and pressure increases on the opposing side, we will face greater challenges. This issue cannot be resolved merely through negotiation, as we are dealing with national security matters." He concluded: "The delay of the Salalah meeting could provide an opportunity for Iran to take control of managing escalating tensions through other pathways; a matter that is vital for our country."

Prospects for Regional Convergence

Regarding the possibility of establishing a regional mechanism for managing the Strait of Hormuz, considering the recent positions of Abbas Araghchi, Iran's Foreign Minister, he stated: "This matter depends on the circumstances. The Islamic Republic usually defines all issues within a single framework in such situations. The likelihood of regional countries aligning with Iran and forming an alliance in this regard seems unlikely to me."

This senior security and strategic issues analyst also referred to doubts about the United States' return to the Islamabad agreement, saying: "It is unlikely that the United States will return to the agreement without achieving a gain under the current circumstances. Given Washington's recent positions and actions, a return to the agreement seems very far-fetched at this time."

The Role of Ansar Allah in Yemen's Equations

Asghar further noted the recent advances of Ansar Allah forces in the island of Perim and the city of Dhubab near Bab al-Mandab, analyzing the status of the forces opposing this group and stating: "Ansar Allah has gained special capabilities due to the lack of cohesion among the opposing forces. Serious disagreements and challenges among various groups in southern Yemen have led to a lack of mutual trust."

According to him, recent developments highlight the necessity of paying attention to the security and diplomatic situation in this sensitive region, and Iran must strengthen its initiative to play an effective role in managing future crises.

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