El Niño has reached a state of emergency and intensifies climate change

El Niño, a natural phenomenon caused by warmer-than-usual waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has reached a state of emergency. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, this phenomenon reached temperatures above 2 degrees Celsius on September 14, 2026, and is recognized as an "extraordinary El Niño."

Global impacts of El Niño

This year, El Niño began to develop in June 2026 and is expected to peak by early 2027. Predictions indicate that this phenomenon could be one of the strongest recorded El Niños and is likely to continue from March to May 2027. According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Niño typically occurs every two to seven years and can last for up to 18 months.

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Food and climate risks

El Niño typically brings heavier rainfall to East Africa, South America, and the southern United States, while causing drought in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and Southern Africa. For example, heavier rainfall is expected in southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya compared to previous years. This rainfall could account for up to 70 percent of the annual precipitation in these areas, thereby increasing the risk of flooding.

In contrast, India and Pakistan are facing reduced rainfall during the summer monsoon season. Rainfall in India is 15 percent below average. Additionally, Indonesia is experiencing a dry season with a high risk of wildfires, and Australia is also expected to face below-average rainfall in southern and eastern regions.

The World Food Programme warns that El Niño could push at least 49 million people into acute famine by the end of 2027, increasing the number from 225 million to 274 million. The dry conditions affecting crops such as corn and rice threaten the food security of millions.

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