Saudi Arabia in the Dilemma of Ansar Allah; Choosing Between Two Strategic Defeats

Saudi Arabia is in a situation where it must choose between two difficult options: accepting the demands of Ansar Allah and ending the conflicts or continuing the confrontation, which will come with heavy costs. This reality is clearly reflected in a conversation with Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the Israeli National Security Studies Institute.

Challenges Facing Saudi Arabia

Citrinowicz states that Saudi Arabia is actually facing two strategic defeats. If Riyadh wants to end the conflicts, it will have to accept the main demands of the Houthis and lift the restrictions imposed on Yemen. This action may lead to a halt in Houthi attacks, but at the same time, it will strengthen them economically and militarily. Additionally, this could place Saudi Arabia at risk from a stronger threat at its southern borders.

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Costs of Continuing the Conflict

If Saudi Arabia refuses to accept the demands of the Houthis, it must continue a war for which it will bear most of the costs. Currently, it seems that very few of Saudi Arabia's partners are willing to fight the Houthis on its behalf. This situation has led to a continuous increase in the costs of continuing the war. Houthi attacks and their Iraqi allies on Saudi energy infrastructure, especially the East-West pipeline, pose a serious threat to the economic interests and strategic stability of the country.

A Trap for Saudi Arabia

Citrinowicz points out that Saudi Arabia is in a trap; conceding to the Houthis may bring short-term peace, but ultimately strengthens their threat in the future. On the other hand, escalating current tensions may preserve Saudi Arabia's credibility, but it carries the risk of a war whose costs increase day by day, and Riyadh may not be able to achieve a decisive victory in it.

Asymmetry on Both Sides

The longer Saudi Arabia bears this burden almost alone, the more the Houthis can exploit a fundamental asymmetry between the two sides. Compared to the Houthis, Riyadh has much more to lose from long-term instability. Ultimately, there is no simple and cost-free exit route, and without broader international community involvement, Saudi Arabia must choose one of two options: strengthening the Houthis or enduring a protracted war with no clear end in sight.

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