Al Jazara
روایت خاورمیانه 
Turkey, considering the new commitments it has accepted under the Mecca Defense Pact towards Saudi Arabia, may be more exposed than ever to being drawn into confrontation with Yemen's Houthis. If such a confrontation occurs, it could have implications beyond the Yemeni theater and disrupt Turkey's military, commercial, and energy supply routes in the Red Sea.
The Strategic Importance of the Red Sea
Turkey's military and economic presence in the Horn of Africa, particularly in Somalia, is largely dependent on secure maritime access from the Suez route and the Red Sea. Nevertheless, Turkey has yet to ratify the Mecca Defense Pact, and this issue is expected to be reviewed in Parliament in October. The ongoing attacks by the Houthis against Saudi Arabia and Ankara's recent participation in the multinational maritime defense coalition led by Riyadh have increased the likelihood of Turkey finding itself in a position where some form of confrontation with the Houthis becomes inevitable.
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Limitations of Direct Engagement
However, assessments by regional experts indicate that Ankara is reluctant to engage directly with the Houthis. Instead of entering the war directly, Turkey could leverage its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran to de-escalate tensions while simultaneously providing military equipment to Riyadh to enhance its ability to defend against missiles and drones launched from Yemen. A Turkish official has also emphasized that Riyadh has not yet formally requested assistance from Ankara under the Mecca Pact.
The main issue for Turkey is not just the possibility of entering a military conflict; it is also the costs that even a limited escalation of tensions in the Red Sea could impose on Ankara's military, commercial, and energy ambitions. Bab el-Mandeb is Turkey's gateway to East Africa and its access route to the markets of China and India. Any restrictions on Turkish shipping could increase transport times and trade costs.
Turkey's Influence in Somalia
The significance of this issue is even greater concerning Somalia. Turkey has established a substantial presence in this country over the past years, from an embassy and military training base in Mogadishu to oil exploration activities in Somali waters. A significant portion of the equipment and needs for these activities is supplied from Turkey via the Suez-Red Sea route. As the threat of piracy near the Somali coast is once again on the rise, disruptions in Bab el-Mandeb could threaten the "direct line between Ankara and Mogadishu."
Turkey already has a significant naval presence in the region. Its ships protect an energy exploration vessel off the coast of Somalia, and Ankara is also separately participating in a UN-backed anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden. Therefore, the security of the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb is not merely a commercial issue for Turkey; it is directly linked to the sustainability of its strategic presence in the Horn of Africa.
Political and Security Implications
Direct involvement in a war with the Houthis could have consequences far beyond the Red Sea. Reports indicate that Turkey has not yet listed the Houthis among its designated terrorist organizations, leaving the possibility of establishing communication channels with this group open. Additionally, the significant Yemeni community living in Istanbul and other Turkish cities could provide Ankara with political capital and enable a more active role in diplomatic efforts to end the war in Yemen.
Experts believe that Turkey could provide Riyadh with military equipment, air defense systems, and drones without directly entering Yemeni territory. In this way, Turkey seeks to avoid direct intervention while remaining committed to its defense obligations.
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