Turkey on the Brink of Confrontation with Houthis Following Mecca Agreement

Turkey, with its new commitments to Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Agreement, is on the brink of conflict with the Houthis of Yemen. This situation could create serious consequences for Turkey's supply lines to the Horn of Africa.

Mecca Agreement and Potential Risks

Although Turkey has not yet ratified the Mecca Agreement, the ongoing attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia and Ankara's recent participation in a Saudi-led multinational maritime defense coalition have increased the likelihood of conflict. Regional experts warn that Ankara is reluctant to engage in conflict with the Houthis and may use its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran to de-escalate tensions.

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Economic and Military Consequences

Abuzar Demirci, a researcher at the University of Toronto, pointed to the significance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which is under Houthi control, stating, "This strait is a gateway to China, India, and East Africa for Turkey." Any restrictions on Turkey's maritime transport could increase trade costs and prolong transit times. Demirci emphasized, "The direct line between Ankara and Mogadishu is affected, while piracy off the coast of Somalia is on the rise again.

Turkey has previously had a naval presence in the region, with its warships protecting an energy exploration vessel off the coast of Somalia. Additionally, Ankara continues to participate in the UN anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden.

Concerns Over Increased Tensions

Mohammad al-Bukhaiti, a senior Houthi official, warned Turkey and Pakistan that any intervention in support of Saudi Arabia could come at a heavy cost. Experts believe that Turkey cannot afford a confrontation with the Houthis and should focus on creating communication bridges between Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the Yemeni group.

Betul Dogan Akkas, an assistant professor of international relations at Ankara University, noted that Turkey's non-recognition of the Houthis as a terrorist organization could keep communication channels open. However, experts believe that the risks arising from this situation may not prevent the provision of military equipment to Saudi Arabia.

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