Iraqi Militias' Opposition to Disarmament After U.S. Troop Withdrawal

Iraqi militias, particularly Iran-backed groups, have explicitly stated that they have no intention of handing over their weapons despite the approaching September 30, 2026 deadline for disarmament. This situation raises many questions about Iraq's security future after the withdrawal of U.S. forces.

Forecasting Iraq's Security Future

As the end of decades-long U.S. military presence in Iraq approaches and the disarmament process of non-state armed groups begins, analysts and Iraqi officials are deeply concerned about the militias' ability to continue attacks. These concerns have intensified especially after recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Iraqi militias have continued to target U.S.-related facilities both inside and outside of Iraq.

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The Iraqi Government's Approach

The Iraqi government is attempting to bring armed groups under the control of its security forces. Many of these militias are recognized as part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, an alliance of armed groups that are officially considered part of Iraq's armed forces but operate independently. Iraqi officials are seeking to transfer the mobile weapons of these groups to the central command of the Popular Mobilization Forces, placing these groups under government command.

However, major powers like Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba are strongly opposed to disarmament and have set conditions that the Iraqi government is not immediately able to meet. Among these conditions is the transfer and organization of weapons in a way that gives the government greater control.

Security Challenges in the Kurdistan Region

The withdrawal of U.S. forces may temporarily reduce some threats, but experts say the Kurdistan region of Iraq will remain at risk of attacks from militias and Iran-affiliated groups. This risk particularly increases concerning attacks on bases of Iranian Kurdish opponents, energy facilities, and even government offices.

Given the current situation, it is likely that no group will disarm by September 30, and negotiations will continue. This situation could lead to further instability in Iraq and highlight the need for new attention and planning for the country's security future.

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